FICC
One macro framework for rates, FX, credit, and commodities, helping investors connect cross-market signals and position with clarity and conviction.
The tempo of China’s and the US’s military operations is picking up sharply. The risk of a sudden, perhaps unintended, escalation of military conflict, therefore, is rising in the South China Sea. So is the risk of another shooting war in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, China’s reopening, marginally stronger GDP growth, and massive fiscal stimulus to support renewables and defense is being rolled out. In states with high debt-to-GDP ratios like the EU and US, the risk of fiscal dominance is rising, and with it higher inflation. We remain long the XOP oil and gas ETF; the XME metals and mining ETF, and long the commodity COMT ETF to hedge this risk.
In this Strategy Insight, we go over the RBA’s recent decision and the implications of its hawkish message for AUD trades.
In this Strategy Insight, we go over the RBA’s recent decision and the implications of its hawkish message for AUD trades.
This week, we articulate what the actions of the three major central banks that met (Fed, ECB and BoE) mean for currency markets. This is within the context of our analysis of the latest data releases in the G10, that allows us to calibrate currency strategy.
Financial markets were taken on a wild ride between Wednesday and Friday of this week, with hugely important monetary policy meetings in the US, euro area and UK along with a rash of economic data. Despite all the news, noise and market volatility, the underlying message for monetary policy and bond yields in the US, euro area and UK is unchanged.
This US Bond Strategy Insight discusses what we learned from yesterday’s FOMC meeting and press conference, and discusses the implications of the market’s reaction.
