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Marko Papic

Chief Investment Strategist & Head of GeoMacro

Marko Papic translates geopolitical and macroeconomic trends into actionable investment implications through a framework he calls GeoMacro. Marko leads the firm’s premier…
Marko Papic
  • The Big Debate on Europe: Boom or Doom?
    CoreMacro GeoMacro Fixed Income, Currencies & Commodities Equities
    The Big Debate on Europe: Boom or Doom?
    Please join BCA Chief Economist Peter Berezin, Chief Investment Strategist & Head of GeoMacro, Marko Papic, and Chief Europe Strategist, Jeremie Peloso, for a Europe Debate Webcast.
    Peter Berezin, Marko Papic, Jeremie Peloso
    16 Nov 2026, 10:30 EST, 15:30 GMT
    Central Europe
  • GeoMacro

    Gina Did Win… Now What?

    On October 13, we asked what would happen “if Gina wins?” Gina Hinojosa, a Democratic state legislator from the traditionally Republican-voting Texas, was at the time given only a 1-in-5 chance of winning the state’s governorship, despite being tied in the polls with the conservative incumbent.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    The Real Meaning Of The Midterms

    US institutions are prevailing over an unorthodox personality, implying policy adjustment and a decent backdrop for equity markets. But the Iran war is an immediate and acute risk to the global macro and market outlook.

    Matt Gertken, Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Capitulation... You On Stocks Or Trump On Iran

    October has been a bad month for equities — particularly AI/tech ones — and a great month for oil. We do not think that the AI supercycle is ending, it has more room to go. Token price decline is a sign of a price war between LLMs, not a decline in demand. In fact, that price war is what is driving datacenter profitability, which is what the bull market is actually based on.As such, what matters on a tactical time horizon is whether Trump capitulates on Iran. If he does not, the market will have to correct. We take the bullish side and expect oil prices to decline imminently, forcing a short squeeze and powering equities higher.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro FICC CoreMacro

    Buy Europe

    Europe has 99 problems, but the paucity of bearish views about the Old Continent is not one of them! And yet, somewhat shockingly, European assets have outperformed US assets over the past two years. Sure, markets make mistakes. But the macro graveyards are littered with investors who thought they were smarter than the markets. In this report, we suggest that Europe is on a cusp of significant structural reforms that will unlock value in its services sector. And that while many of the challenges are real, they’re either well understood or priced in.

    Marko Papic, Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso

  • GeoMacro

    October Surprise – More War

    Iran is effectively trying to create an “October surprise,” an adage that refers to a pre-election crisis that alters the trajectory of polling and the eventual outcome. It is likely to be successful, with oil prices likely to face upward momentum from here. The intention would be to ensure that oil prices do not see any significant decline from now until November 3.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Here, There, and Everywhere Report - October 2026

    The big risk for the markets remains a flare up in the Middle East conflict. The Fed appears to be targeting geopolitics as much as inflation fundamentals. By the logic of transitive properties, therefore, more war means more hikes. That’s negative. So why are we not bearish on equities and bonds? Because President Trump holds his own faith in his hands. With his unfavourability near all-time highs (Chart of the Month), the conflict in Iran is at its end. Our worry? A Democratic Party sweep that surprises in its intensity and thus forces markets to start pricing in a leftward tilt in 2028.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    What If Gina Wins?

    Democratic candidate for the Texas Senate seat, James Talarico, has been leading his opponent, Republican Ken Paxton, for over a month in the betting markets. At the moment, Talarico’s probability of turning the Texas Senate seat blue is a whopping 65%. This is partly a result of Paxton’s flawed candidacy that builds on his dramatically flawed time as Texas’s attorney general. Remember, the staunchly Republican Texas House of Representatives voted to impeach Paxton in 2023!

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Houthis Shift From Energy To Civilian Infrastructure

    Markets woke up to twin Houthi attacks on October 12. On October 9, the Yemen-based, Iran-allied, militant group attacked the King Khalid International Airport with a missile, killing 12 civilians and injuring over 300. Following that attack, President Trump suggested that the US “may” join Saudi Arabia’s fight against the Houthis. On October 11, the airport was struck again, with Saudi Arabia vowing to respond.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    The FOMC Is Targeting… Geopolitics

    Long-dated bond yields rose another 48 bps since our last missive, quite a move in just a month. And yet, equities have remained resilient. This suggests that the move in bond yields is due to sanguine economic forces, not fiscal profligacy or inflation fears. In addition, the war in Iran is subsiding, partly because the Fed itself has conspired against it. Will President Trump restart the conflict regardless? Perhaps, however, the constraints are mounting against the White House foreign policy. We remain bullish on equities and reaffirm our view that investors with a long-term horizon should be nibbling at the current level of yields.To make sure that our bearish clients are happy, we pivot to the risk of higher tax rates in the US. Specifically, we try to answer the question of when markets price higher tax rates.

    Marko Papic, Katia Shtrevensky

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